Manual Processing Profit Narrowed in October, Short-Term Primary Aluminum Imports Expected to Decrease [SMM Analysis]

SMM November 24 News:

Primary Aluminum Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminum imports in October 2025 were approximately 248,400 mt, up 0.6% MoM and 42.1% YoY. Cumulative primary aluminum imports from January to October totaled approximately 2.2108 million mt, up 21.2% YoY. Primary Aluminum Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminum exports in October 2025 were approximately 24,600 mt, down 15.2% MoM but up 54.2% YoY. Cumulative primary aluminum exports from January to October totaled approximately 206,900 mt, up about 131.1% YoY. Primary Aluminum Net Imports: China's net imports of primary aluminum in October 2025 were 223,800 mt, up 2.7% MoM and 40.9% YoY. Cumulative net imports of primary aluminum from January to October were approximately 2.0039 million mt, up 15.5% YoY.

(The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

By country of origin, the main sources for China's primary aluminum imports in October 2025 were the Russian Federation, Indonesia, India, Australia, and other countries and regions. Among them, imports from Russia were approximately 157,700 mt, down 10.4% MoM, accounting for 63.5% of October imports. Imports from Indonesia were approximately 36,400 mt, accounting for 14.7%.

By trade mode, as primary aluminum imports are currently unprofitable, the share of imports under Ordinary Trade is relatively small, at only 5.7%. The combined share of imports under Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area and Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas reached 43.4%. Imports under the processing with supplied materials mode accounted for 33.2%. The combined share of imports under processing with supplied materials and Processing with Imported Materials was 16.3%, with a total import volume of approximately 40,400 mt, up 0.3% MoM and 1,637.8% YoY.

Looking ahead, news of production cuts at an Icelandic smelter in October and expectations of overseas supply tightening pushed LME aluminum prices higher. SHFE aluminum prices failed to keep pace, widening the import loss for primary aluminum, which peaked at nearly 3,000 yuan/mt. Profit margins for handbook processing narrowed, and imports under handbook processing are expected to decrease subsequently. Additionally, due to high aluminum premiums in Europe and the US, some supply is expected to be diverted to those regions, slightly affecting the supply of imported aluminum in China.

Data Source: SMM